Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.947468 43.824883 51.422506 60.409963 70.721189 82.150456 95.745908
2024-10-20 29.342334 39.089600 50.929490 66.238861 85.364801 108.314355 137.762175
2024-10-27 21.368522 31.350591 44.454160 62.643297 86.922719 117.864877 159.870191
2024-11-03 18.050834 28.637449 43.424532 65.124141 95.601685 136.249802 193.791472
2024-11-10 15.920982 27.044308 43.436587 68.654968 105.614267 156.789958 231.747946
2024-11-17 14.105722 25.521233 43.188839 71.550284 114.717505 176.488779 269.687981
2024-11-24 12.075293 23.260422 41.425818 71.814484 119.772626 190.572643 300.407143
2024-12-01 9.985579 20.506408 38.445729 69.716788 120.859762 198.691174 322.722735
2024-12-08 8.681101 18.895090 37.091307 69.990830 125.509118 212.261226 353.750429
2024-12-15 7.700708 17.707102 36.279171 71.012035 131.327994 227.862650 388.627202
2024-12-22 6.025295 14.835246 32.034070 65.549496 125.795178 225.014826 394.386964
2024-12-29 5.462122 14.156252 31.777662 67.168662 132.400130 242.065640 432.607385
2025-01-05 4.495750 12.521200 29.657173 65.528561 133.934808 252.171407 462.520657
2025-01-12 4.360475 12.795012 31.490290 71.792014 150.505014 289.207935 540.035769
2025-01-19 3.422970 10.891729 28.423760 67.938204 147.929630 292.991396 561.733820
2025-01-26 3.101917 10.481484 28.547740 70.598566 157.935725 319.577949 624.178910
2025-02-02 2.887255 10.307237 29.176872 74.383057 170.437159 351.436637 697.649265
2025-02-09 2.653844 10.019863 29.485770 77.484993 181.804290 381.891394 770.264295
2025-02-16 2.307020 9.295168 28.594661 77.767987 187.392860 401.864018 825.001223
2025-02-23 1.902788 8.261121 26.722360 75.520793 187.430156 411.209873 860.682340
2025-03-02 1.659199 7.688605 25.965994 75.814401 192.891920 431.333293 917.446889
2025-03-09 1.475319 7.270737 25.560772 76.908423 200.175415 455.448561 982.963232
2025-03-16 1.114902 6.042304 22.575555 71.054595 191.288142 446.497089 984.462835